http://gty.im/453480314    In light of recent reports that Iran and world powers are approaching an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, it would be wise to ask what the consequences are of an Iranian threshold or nuclear capable state. Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, who previously served as strategic affairs minister, listed a few:

1. A changing of the world order by negating the West’s dominating values and turning Islam into a leading power.

2. Turning Iran into a regional superpower.

3. Further strengthening the Iranian regime.

Iran is seemingly committed to its interests as a state, and would not risk its existence with hasty or rash action. Proof of this rational thought was its pursuit of a cease-fire during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, when losses became unbearable in the public’s eyes.

But history also shows that Iranian regime’s considerations are not always bounded by the classic Western model of realpolitik. In the 19th century, Iranian Imams forced the shah to wage war against the Russians on two occasions in response to their cruel treatment of Muslims. On both occasions, the shah opposed this, saying it would lead to disaster because Iran’s army was much weaker than its northern neighbor. But under threat of being called a heretic by the imams, the shah went to war twice and lost both times, leading to large chunks of Iranian territory being captured by the Russians.

Fundamentalist Shiite ideology is built around the readiness to die for the religious cause, as did the Imam Husayn ibn Ali and the 11 other imams who make up Shiite Islam’s Twelvers. According to their beliefs, the 12th imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, has remained hidden and will one day return to put the world under the rule of Shiite Islam. When he returns, he will kill all the Jews, and there are some who believe he will destroy two-thirds of humanity.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s addition to this belief is that Shiites should take an active part in the process for it to come true. In Shiite ideology the central enemy is the Jews, and today that also means the State of Israel. Khamenei said: “This regime, that controls Al-Quds [Jerusalem], needs to be destroyed.” Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said: “Today the Zionist regime is the greatest threat to the world. … We have said it again and again, that we must remove this cancerous tumor from the region.”

A nuclear Iran, under certain conditions, such as an existential threat to the regime, may choose its suicidal religious ideology over the cold rationale of national interests and carry out a nuclear attack against the Jews, even if this costs it dearly. In 2003, former Iranian President Akbar Rafsanjani said, “The use of a nuclear bomb in Israel will leave nothing on the ground, whereas it will only damage the world of Islam.”

It is better not to put one’s trust in Western beliefs such as mutually assured destruction, as they have no role to play in the decision making of the ayatollah regime. We must take preventative measures. Israel’s goal must be to prevent Iran from gaining any ability to create a nuclear weapon, and not accept it as a threshold state that will trick the West and pose an existential threat to Israel and the Jews. Many Sunni regimes will thank us and so will — even if a bit late, as with the Iraqi nuclear program — many Western nations.

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=11759